Demand Decline in the US Wine Industry Set to Stabilize, According to SVB's 2026 Report
Silicon Valley Bank (SVB), a division of First Citizens Bank (NASDAQ: FCNCA), has announced the release of its 25th annual State of the US Wine Industry Report. This report, published today, provides crucial insights into the current market conditions of the premium wine sector, strategies for success, and forecasts for the industry in 2026.
2026 Sales Forecast: Key Industry Figures
The SVB report estimates a decline in industry sales for 2025, presenting the following projections:
- Total volume: Approximately 329 million cases (down from 335.9 million in 2024)
- Total value: Approximately $74.3 billion (down from $75.5 billion in 2024)
This signals a continuing demand correction within the wine market, primarily influenced by the decline in sales of value wines priced under $12. In 2025, overall industry sales decreased by 2.0% in volume and 1.6% in value, although there were slight improvements compared to the previous year.
Premium Wine Segment Faces Challenges
The premium wine sector is projected to experience its first decline in growth rates since 2020. Analysis from SVB’s Peer Group Analysis Database revealed that premium winery revenues fell by 1.2% both in terms of case and dollar sales in the first half of 2025. This segment is currently facing balanced to slightly heavy inventories.
"We expect the decline in total market demand to improve in 2026, with the market bottoming in 2027 through 2028 before returning to modest growth rates," stated Rob McMillan, founder of SVB's Wine Division and author of the report.
McMillan emphasized that wineries demonstrating growth are adapting their consumer engagement strategies, inventory management, and brand value propositions during this shifting market landscape.
Trends Impacting the US Wine Industry
The 2026 SVB wine report highlights significant trends that will shape the industry:
- The rate of demand decline is expected to improve in 2026, with modest growth anticipated post-2028.
- Excess inventory of high-quality bulk wine is leading to increased consumer value for private labels, which are growing at double-digit rates.
- Overproduction persists as a significant challenge, contributing to elevated inventory levels across the supply chain, expectations of improvement hinge on retail demand.
- Visitor numbers and average spending at tasting rooms for smaller wineries have decreased.
Upcoming Webinar and Additional Resources
To provide further insights, Silicon Valley Bank will host a live webinar on January 15th, 2026, at 9:00 a.m. PST. The discussion will feature a panel including industry experts such as Rob McMillan, Janie Brooks Heuck from Brooks Wine, Kristin Marchesi from Metis Mergers & Acquisitions, and Matthew Owings from Rombauer Vineyards. Interested participants can register for the live webinar here. A replay will be made available post-event.
For a comprehensive analysis, the full 2026 State of the Wine Industry report can be accessed through SVB's platform.
About Silicon Valley Bank and First Citizens Bank
Founded in 1994, SVB's Wine Division specializes in commercial banking dedicated to premium wineries and vineyards in the significant fine-wine regions of California, Oregon, and Washington. With the largest team of bankers in the industry, it serves clients with tailored financial solutions.
First Citizens Bank, headquartered in Raleigh, N.C., is recognized as a top 20 U.S. financial institution, providing comprehensive financial services to personal, business, and wealth clients nationwide. First Citizens BancShares, Inc. (NASDAQ: FCNCA) holds more than $200 billion in assets and maintains a commitment to fostering long-term financial strength and stability.