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Warsh Signals Inflation Easing; July Rate Hike Odds Rise

Jul 1, 2026, 2:32 PM EDT1 sourcesAI-analyzed

Why it may matterVerify against the original reporting

Inflation-easing signals and higher odds of a July hike can support near-term risk-on sentiment and a modest S&P rally, though policy uncertainty caps gains; historical parallels show S&P weakness or strength around shift in rate expectations.

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What happened, with direct paths to the underlying reporting

Fed Chair Warsh signaled inflation risks have eased, keeping policy decisions data-driven. Markets priced a 30% chance of a July rate hike, sharpening focus on the upcoming jobs data. The S&P 500 showed a modest gain as investors weighed higher-for-longer risks against resilient growth.

Warsh says inflation risks have eased. Rate path remains data-driven.
Markets price 30% odds of a July hike. A hold remains likely.
S&P 500 modestly higher; Nasdaq down; gold edges higher.
Citigroup trims 12-month forecasts for bitcoin/ether.
Dot plot revisions to be revisited; policy guidance uncertain.

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