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Q2 profitability upside across majors (Exxon, CVX, SHEL) supports near-term share price strength, especially with continued buybacks and debt reduction. Potential windfall taxes or regulatory scrutiny remain overhangs, but current earnings momentum and cash returns are the primary price drivers in the short term.
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Chevron and peers face a Q2 earnings windfall from Iran-related supply disruptions and higher crude prices, though executives say the gains are temporary and capital spending will stay restrained. Exxon signaled a $5 billion profit jump to about $15.7 billion, suggesting CVX could post strong results. Market reaction will hinge on buybacks, debt reduction, and regulatory risk around windfall taxes.
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