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Macro stress signals (rising oil, AI debt, higher long-dated yields) can compress BDC NAVs via higher discount rates and wider credit spreads; past episodes (2007 stress, yield spikes) show outsized volatility for debt-funded ventures and private markets, which can hurt APO's portfolio performance and liquidity.
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Michael Burry warns of a collision among rising oil, AI debt, and long-duration Treasuries, highlighting potential stress on private markets and debt-funded AI expansion. He points to 30-year yields above 5% in 2026, oil near $100, and the risk to private equity/credit funding, which could weigh on APO through higher borrowing costs and tighter credit conditions.
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