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SP500BearishEconomicnews

High materiality7/10

Fed Inflation Slows, Growth Weakens; Rate-Hike Odds Rise, Pressuring the S&P 500

Jul 30, 2026, 10:58 AM EDT1 sourcesAI-analyzed

Why it may matterVerify against the original reporting

Hawkish rate-hike expectations tend to compress multiples and weigh on broad indices; volatility tends to rise around FOMC guidance, with SPX sensitive to inflation and growth surprises.

AI summary

What happened, with direct paths to the underlying reporting

June's PCE inflation cooled to 3.3% but remains above the Fed's 2% target, while Q2 GDP grew just 1.5% annualized. With consumer spending resilient at 3.2%, traders pushed rate hike odds higher for September, and the year-end probability rose above 83%. The mix supports a cautious, rate-sensitive S&P 500 near-term outlook.

PCE inflation 3.3% in June, down from May's 3.4%, still above target.
Q2 real GDP +1.5% annualized, below expectations of 2.1%.
Consumer spending grew 3.2% while overall growth cooled.
FedWatch: Sep hike odds at 59.2%, rising to 83.5% by December.

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