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If imported biofuels lag and mandates persist, domestic ethanol demand could tighten, boosting ethanol prices and refining margins for large players like VLO; policy incentives fading adds volatility and upside risk to biofuel-related earnings genes.
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Valero Energy notes U.S. biofuel imports aren’t rising quickly enough to satisfy EPA renewable fuel blending mandates, as imports no longer receive key tax incentives. The dynamic underscores potential near-term shifts in biofuel supply and refinery margins as policy incentives fade and domestic production bears more load. If mandates persist, refiners could see price and margin volatility tied to biofuel supply dynamics.
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