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A cleared incentive path and progress toward a large-scale Texas plant could unlock a substantial capex program and bolster TSLA's solar growth narrative; however, execution risk and production capacity details remain to be resolved, limiting upside magnitude until milestones are concrete.
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Tesla's Fort Bend project could anchor a 100 GW/year US solar manufacturing push by 2028, pending incentives. The Fort Bend site is one of two options and its production capacity remains undisclosed. If approved, it would drive substantial capex and job growth, but timing and scale remain uncertain.
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