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Midterm gridlock historically fuels S&P 500 nine-month rally

Sep 21, 2026, 8:33 AM EDT1 sourcesAI-analyzed

Why it may matterVerify against the original reporting

Historical midterm gridlock patterns show a high probability of Q4 and 9-month gains for the S&P 500, with broad-based upside when policy risk recedes; this lowers discount rates and supports multiple expansion. Similar past episodes have produced double-digit gains in the subsequent 9–12 months.

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Historical data show midterm gridlock often spurs a late-year rally as policy risk eases. Since 1925, the S&P 500 has risen in 84% of midterm-year Q4s with nine-month gains averaging 19.8%, and overseas markets tend to follow due to high cross-border correlations.

Midterm gridlock historically triggers a bullish nine-month rally.
S&P 500 midterm-year Q4 win rate 84% since 1925; nine-month gains average 19.8%.
Gridlock reduces policy risk and boosts overseas markets through global correlations.
Q1–Q3 midterm-year positives: 46%, 58%, 60% through June.

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