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The tax incentives directly improve cash flow and project economics, increasing IRR and NPV for new mines; this should support higher valuations and accelerate M&A activity, as evidenced by Barrick’s discount to peers and TD Cowen’s target ideas.
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Canada’s Productivity Mega Deduction and permanent immediate expensing cut the marginal tax rate on new business investment to 6.4%, a historic low versus peers. The move aims to spur roughly $1 trillion in new investment and could instantly improve mining economics, catalyzing an M&A wave. Barrick and Equinox are highlighted as beneficiaries by TD Cowen, with potential near-term catalysts supporting higher risk-adjusted returns.
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