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U.S. Treasuries push to 19-year highs on PMI strength and Fed hike bets

Sep 24, 2026, 3:51 AM EDT1 sourcesAI-analyzed

Why it may matterVerify against the original reporting

Rising yields lift discount rates, compress equity valuations, and heighten rate-hike expectations; PMIs imply resilient growth that may sustain higher rates, weighing on multiple expansions. Historical precedent shows S&P 500 weakness when 10-year yields approach or exceed 5% during hawkish cycles.

AI summary

What happened, with direct paths to the underlying reporting

Stronger PMIs and higher oil prices reinforce expectations of additional Fed rate hikes, lifting U.S. Treasury yields to multi-decade highs. With the 10-year around 5.12% and a roughly 70% odds of a October hike, equity valuations may face tighter discount rates in the near term. Investors will parse weekly jobless claims and new home sales for signs of growth resilience.

Yields rose to 19-year highs as PMI data boosted rate-hike bets. Rate bets surged.
PMI: services 58.7, manufacturing 56.7, renewing hawkish Fed expectations.
Oil prices rebound supported risk-off pressure; Brent 103.66, WTI 92.68.
Upcoming data: weekly jobless claims and August new home sales awaited.

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