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A sharp rise in the 10-year yield to 5.11% and the record low in TLT indicate stronger-than-expected growth data is expanding real yields, which typically lowers demand for long-duration Treasuries. Historical episodes where yields move above 5% often see prolonged weakness in TLT until yields stabilize or a risk-off bid emerges.
What happened, with direct paths to the underlying reporting
TLT dropped to a new record low near $79.71 amid a broad selloff in long-duration Treasuries as the 10-year yield climbed to 5.11%, a level not seen since 2007. Ed Yardeni attributes the move to a booming economy and PMI of 58.4, suggesting real yields are driving the rise more than inflation fears. With mixed views on where yields go next, near-term TLT performance will hinge on Fed signals and incoming data.
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