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IVVBullishMarket Recapnews

High materiality7/10

S&P 500 Q4 Seasonality Points to IVV Year-End Gains

Sep 28, 2026, 4:34 AM EDT1 sourcesAI-analyzed

Why it may matterVerify against the original reporting

Positive Q4 seasonality and a strong YTD baseline typically lift broad-market ETFs like IVV; historical volatility is tempered by constructive tech leadership and a high probability of continued gains into year-end.

AI summary

What happened, with direct paths to the underlying reporting

Carson Group highlights a seasonal pattern: if the S&P 500 remains up 10-20% through Q3, Q4 tends to produce gains, with an 85.7% success rate and an average 5.3% return since 1950. With the index up 12.9% year-to-date, IVV should benefit as tech leadership and broad market strength persist into year-end.

Q3-end up 10-20%; Carson signals Q4 gains. This is the historical sweet spot.
18 of 21 Q4 positive since 1950; avg 5.3% gain.
S&P 500 YTD up 12.9% as of Sept 25.
IVV likely tracks SPY/QQQ with broad index strength.
Tech makes up 39% of S&P 500; communications 11%.

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