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Inflation Persists, Fed Signals Possible Hikes, S&P 500 Scenarios Ahead

Sep 30, 2026, 6:51 PM EDT1 sourcesAI-analyzed

Why it may matterVerify against the original reporting

Persistent inflation signals and potential for further rate hikes tend to pressure equity valuations and increase discount rates, similar to episodes in 2018-2019 and 2022 when hawkish bias weighing on stocks caused near-term weakness.

AI summary

What happened, with direct paths to the underlying reporting

Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari cautioned that inflation remains elevated even after cooler August PCE data, with core PCE at about 3% YoY. He noted the economy is resilient and the Fed may still hike again, implying higher-for-longer rates. This suggests near-term pressure on equities, including the S&P 500, until inflation clearly cools and policy clarity improves.

Kashkari: inflation remains too high despite cooler August PCE data.
Core PCE runs around 3% annual; Fed rate-hike risk remains.
Economy appears resilient per consumer spending and GDP signals.
Fed signaled another rate increase could be on the horizon.

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