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Fed Rate Outlook Shifts as September Jobs Miss Dampens October Hike Odds

Oct 2, 2026, 12:24 PM EDT1 sourcesAI-analyzed

Why it may matterVerify against the original reporting

A softer labor market and cooler inflation reduce near-term rate-hike risk, often supporting equities; however, December tightening remains a headwind, limiting upside and creating a tug-of-war that can keep volatility elevated.

AI summary

What happened, with direct paths to the underlying reporting

September payrolls rose 29,000, far below estimates, dampening October rate-hike expectations. Cooler PCE inflation reinforces patience on policy. Markets still price a December hike, creating a cautious but constructive backdrop for the S&P 500 ahead of the October 28 decision.

Weak September payrolls reduce Oct hike odds.
PCE inflation cooler; Dec hike odds remain elevated.
CME FedWatch shows Oct hike odds at 17%.
Kalshi Oct hike odds at 18% vs ~70% prior.

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