Signal brief

Bernstein’s Nov. 6 report estimates U.S. midterm-driven regulatory shifts raise exposed data-center pipeline to 306 GW but would likely only trim nationwide credible capacity by about 2%–4%, not derail expansion.

• Bernstein estimated a nationwide impact on credible data-center capacity of roughly 2%–4%.
• Bernstein reported the data-center pipeline exposed to restrictive state policies rose from 249 GW before the elections to 306 GW after.
• Within that exposed total, credible capacity increased from 78 GW to 105 GW (an incremental 27 GW).
• Bernstein said about 10 GW of the incremental exposed capacity is already under construction, leaving roughly 17 GW potentially vulnerable.
• In a downside scenario where none of the exposed capacity gets built, Bernstein estimates roughly a 9% reduction in the credible pipeline but calls that outcome unlikely.