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ADP National Employment Report: Private Sector Employment Shed 32,000 Jobs in September; Annual Pay was Up 4.5%

1. Private sector employment fell by 32,000 jobs in September. 2. Year-over-year pay growth for job-stayers remained steady at 4.5%. 3. ADP rebenchmarking revised job data downward by 43,000 jobs. 4. Employers are exhibiting caution with hiring amidst economic growth. 5. Job creation continues to lose momentum across most sectors.

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FAQ

Why Bearish?

The contraction in private employment and downward revision of job numbers suggests labor market weakness, which may negatively impact investor sentiment towards ADP, especially given the importance of employment data to market performance. Historically, significant job losses or revisions adversely affect stock prices, as seen during previous economic downturns.

How important is it?

Given that ADP is a key source of employment data, the reported job losses and stagnant pay growth can directly impact its stock price. The employment report affects ADP’s credibility and perceived market health, influencing investor behavior significantly.

Why Short Term?

The immediate reaction to employment reports is significant; investors' sentiments tend to respond quickly to news on job losses. However, the longer-term impact will depend on subsequent economic indicators and how ADP reassures the market.

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, /PRNewswire/ -- Private sector employment shed 32,000 jobs in September and pay was up 4.5 percent year-over-year according to the September ADP National Employment Report® produced by ADP Research in collaboration with the Stanford Digital Economy Lab ("Stanford Lab").   ADP Research (PRNewsfoto/ADP, Inc.) The ADP National Employment Report is an independent measure of the labor market based on the anonymized weekly payroll data of more than 26 million private-sector employees in the United States. ADP's Pay Insights captures nearly 14.8 million individual pay change observations each month. Together, the jobs report and pay insights use ADP's fine-grained data to provide a representative and high-frequency picture of the private-sector labor market. "Despite the strong economic growth we saw in the second quarter, this month's release further validates what we've been seeing in the labor market, that U.S. employers have been cautious with hiring," said Dr. Nela Richardson, chief economist, ADP. September 2025 Report Highlights View the ADP National Employment Report and interactive charts at www.adpemploymentreport.com. JOBS REPORT Private employers shed 32,000 jobs in SeptemberADP conducted its annual preliminary rebenchmarking of the National Employment Report in September based on the full-year 2024 results of the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages. This recalibration resulted in a reduction of 43,000 jobs in September compared to pre-benchmarked data. The trend was unchanged; job creation continued to lose momentum across most sectors. Change in U.S. Private Employment :     -32,000 Change by Industry - Goods-producing:     -3,000 Natural resources/mining     4,000 Construction     -5,000 Manufacturing     -2,000 - Service-providing:     -28,000 Trade/transportation/utilities     -7,000 Information     3,000 Financial activities     -9,000 Professional/business services     -13,000 Education/health services     33,000 Leisure/hospitality     -19,000 Other services     -16,000 Change by U.S. Regions - Northeast:     21,000 New England     2,000 Mid-Atlantic     19,000 - Midwest:     -63,000 East North Central     -67,000 West North Central     4,000 - South:     3,000 South Atlantic     5,000 East South Central     -18,000 West South Central     16,000 - West:     15,000 Mountain     -6,000 Pacific     21,000 Change by Establishment Size - Small establishments:     -40,000 1-19 employees     -19,000 20-49 employees     -21,000 - Medium establishments:     -20,000 50-249 employees     -11,000 250-499 employees     -9,000 - Large establishments:     33,000 500+ employees     33,000 PAY INSIGHTS September pay gains were steady for job-stayersYear-over-year pay growth for job-stayers was little changed in September at 4.5 percent. Pay gains for job-changers slowed to 6.6 percent from 7.1 percent in August, led by leisure and hospitality and financial activities. Median Change in Annual Pay - Job-stayers     4.5%- Job-changers     6.6% Median Change in Annual Pay for Job-Stayers by Industry - Goods-producing:                                                     Natural resources/mining     4.3% Construction     4.5% Manufacturing     4.7% - Service-providing:                                                Trade/transportation/utilities     4.3% Information     4.3% Financial activities     5.2% Professional/business services     4.2% Education/health services     4.4% Leisure/hospitality     4.5% Other services     4.1% Median Change in Annual Pay for Job-Stayers by Firm Size - Small firms:                                                                 1-19 employees     2.7% 20-49 employees     4.0% - Medium firms:                                                              50-249 employees     4.7% 250-499 employees     4.8% - Large firms:                                                                 500+ employees     4.8% To see Pay Insights by U.S. State, Gender, and Age for Job-Stayers, visit here: Statement on September Preliminary BenchmarkIn September, ADP conducted a preliminary rebenchmarking of the National  Employment Report based on full-year 2024 results from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.This recalibration resulted in a reduction of 43,000 jobs in the September 2025 ADP National Employment Report. The number of jobs created in August 2025 was revised from 54,000 to -3,000.ADP's full-year benchmarking will take place in February 2026 with the publication of the January 2026 National Employment Report. Note: The most recent release of the QCEW contained a higher-than-normal number of missing or redacted values for establishment size by NAICS sector and geography subgroups. This required the benchmark to be calculated at a coarser granularity than in previous years.For additional information about the ADP National Employment Report, including historical files, employment and pay data, methodology, and a calendar of release dates, please visit https://adpemploymentreport.com/.    The October 2025 ADP National Employment Report will be released on November 5, 2025 at 8:15 a.m. ET. About ADP Research The mission of ADP Research is to make the future of work more productive through data-driven discovery. Companies, workers, and policy makers rely on our finely tuned data and unique perspective to make informed decisions that impact workplaces around the world.To subscribe to monthly email alerts or obtain additional information about ADP Research, including employment and pay data, methodology, and a calendar of release dates, please visit https://www.adpresearch.com. About ADP (NASDAQ: ADP)ADP has been shaping the world of work with innovation and expertise for more than 75 years. As a global leader in HR and payroll solutions, ADP continuously works to solve business challenges for our clients and their workers, from simple, easy-to-use tools for small businesses to fully integrated platforms for global enterprises – and everything in between. Always Designing for People means we're focused on just that – people. We use our unmatched AI-driven insights and proven expertise to design innovative solutions that help people achieve greater success at work. More than 1.1 million clients across 140+ countries rely on ADP's exceptional service to support their people and drive their business forward. HR, Talent, Time Management, Benefits, Compliance, and Payroll. Learn more at ADP.com ADP, the ADP logo, and Always Designing for People, ADP National Employment Report, and ADP Research are registered trademarks of ADP, Inc. All other marks are the property of their respective owners. Copyright © 2025 ADP, Inc. All rights reserved. ADP-Media SOURCE ADP, Inc. WANT YOUR COMPANY'S NEWS FEATURED ON PRNEWSWIRE.COM? 440k+ Newsrooms & Influencers 9k+ Digital Media Outlets 270k+ Journalists Opted In

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