1. Allegiant reports February 2025 passenger traffic up 2.9% from last year. 2. Peak demand periods remain strong, while off-peak demand shows weakness. 3. Full-year capacity forecast reduced from 17% to 13% year-over-year growth. 4. First quarter TRASM expected to decline over 7% compared to the prior year. 5. Consolidated earnings anticipated at lower end, around $1.50 per share.
The decline in TRASM and capacity forecast may negatively affect investor sentiment, akin to historical patterns where forecasting missteps led to stock drops.
Current demand trends and adjusted guidance directly impact ALGT's financial outlook and stock valuation.
Market reactions to demand and forecasting adjustments typically manifest within quarterly reporting cycles.
"Consistent with recent industry commentary, we are experiencing leisure demand softness, predominantly observed during the shoulder and off-peak periods," stated Drew Wells, Chief Commercial Officer of Allegiant Travel Company. "Peak March weeks are performing strong with TRASM nearly in line with the same weeks in the prior year, despite significant growth. However, given the shoulder period weakness, we now expect first quarter TRASM to decline just over seven percent from the prior year. Due to current demand trends, we will reduce our full-year capacity forecast from up 17 percent to up 13 percent year-over-year, with cuts primarily affecting the shoulder and off-peak periods. We will remain flexible with our capacity deployment to appropriately adapt to the demand environment."
"We are seeing better-than-expected cost performance during the quarter," stated Robert Neal, Chief Financial Officer of Allegiant Travel Company. "We anticipate our consolidated earnings per share will come in at the lower end of our initial guide at approximately $1.50 per share, with the airline contributing around $1.75 per share."
| Category | February 2025 | February 2024 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Passengers | 1,280,034 | 1,243,576 | 2.9 % |
| Revenue passenger miles (000) | 1,249,948 | 1,194,104 | 4.7 % |
| Available seat miles (000) | 1,573,230 | 1,421,672 | 10.7 % |
| Load factor | 79.5 % | 84.0 % | (4.5pts) |
| Departures | 9,390 | 8,556 | 9.7 % |
| Average stage length (miles) | 952 | 933 | 2.1 % |
| Category | February 2025 | February 2024 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Passengers | 1,286,748 | 1,253,860 | 2.6 % |
| Available seat miles (000) | 1,610,101 | 1,456,189 | 10.6 % |
| Departures | 9,676 | 8,846 | 9.4 % |
| Average stage length (miles) | 946 | 924 | 2.3 % |
*Total system includes scheduled service and fixed fee contract. System revenue passenger miles and system load factor are not useful statistics as system available seat miles include both ASMs flown by fixed fee flying as well as non-revenue producing repositioning flights used for operational needs. Fixed fee flying is better measured through dollar contribution versus operational statistics.
$ per gallon
February 2025 estimated average fuel cost per gallon - system: $2.70
Las Vegas-based Allegiant (NASDAQ: ALGT) is an integrated travel company with an airline at its heart, focused on connecting customers with the people, places and experiences that matter most. Since 1999, Allegiant Air has linked travelers in small-to-medium cities to world-class vacation destinations with all-nonstop flights and industry-low average fares. Today, Allegiant's fleet serves communities across the nation, with base airfares less than half the cost of the average domestic roundtrip ticket. For more information, visit us at Allegiant.com. Media information, including photos, is available at gofly.us/iiFa303wrtF.
ALGT/G
Note: This news release was accurate at the date of issuance. However, information contained in the release may have changed. If you plan to use the information contained herein for any purpose, verification of its continued accuracy is your responsibility.
For further information please visit the company's investor website: ir.allegiantair.com. Reference to the Company's website above does not constitute incorporation of any of the information thereon into this news release.
Sonya Padgett
Investor Inquiries: Sherry Wilson
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SOURCE Allegiant Travel Company