1. 2025 single-family home sales forecast revised to 4.14 million units. 2. Higher mortgage rate predictions now forecasted at 6.5% for 2025. 3. Real GDP expected to grow 1.4% in 2025 and 2.2% in 2026. 4. Revisions may indicate reduced housing market activity affecting FNMA. 5. Outlook emphasizes reliance on accurate economic assumptions.
The downgraded sales forecast and higher mortgage rates suggest a slowing housing market, which historically depresses FNMA stock due to its reliance on mortgage financing and housing market health.
The article discusses FNMA's forecasts directly, which impacts investor perception and subsequently the stock price.
Immediate impacts from changing consumer confidence and mortgage rates could affect FNMA soon, as housing activity typically reacts quickly to economic shifts.
/PRNewswire/ -- Existing single-family home sales are forecast at 4.14 million units for 2025, down slightly from last month's forecast of 4.24 million units, according to the June 2025 Economic and Housing Outlook from the Fannie Mae (OTCQB: FNMA) Economic and Strategic Research (ESR) Group. Revisions to the home sales forecast were driven in part by the ESR Group's higher expectations for mortgage rates, which are now predicted to end 2025 and 2026 at 6.5% and 6.1%, respectively. The latest outlook also projects real gross domestic product growing at 1.4% in 2025 and 2.2% in 2026 on a Q4/Q4 basis.
Visit the Economic and Strategic Research site at fanniemae.com to read the full June 2025 Economic and Housing Outlook, including the Economic Developments Commentary, Economic Forecast, and Housing Forecast. To receive email updates with other housing market research from Fannie Mae's Economic and Strategic Research Group, please click here.
Opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts, beliefs, and other views of Fannie Mae's Economic and Strategic Research (ESR) Group included in these materials should not be construed as indicating Fannie Mae's business prospects or expected results, are based on a number of assumptions, and are subject to change without notice. How this information affects Fannie Mae will depend on many factors. Although the ESR Group bases its opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts, beliefs, and other views on information it considers reliable, it does not guarantee that the information provided in these materials is accurate, current, or suitable for any particular purpose. Changes in the assumptions or the information underlying these views could produce materially different results. The analyses, opinions, estimates, forecasts, beliefs, and other views published by the ESR Group represent the views of that group as of the date indicated and do not necessarily represent the views of Fannie Mae or its management.
Fannie Mae's Economic and Strategic Research Group, led by Chief Economist Mark Palim, studies current data, analyzes historical and emerging trends, and conducts surveys of consumer and mortgage lenders to inform forecasts and analyses on the economy, housing, and mortgage markets.
https://www.fanniemae.com/news
https://www.fanniemae.com/resources/img/about-fm/fm-building.tif
1-800-2FANNIE
SOURCE Fannie Mae