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OpenAI expects to cut share of revenue it pays Microsoft by 2030

1. OpenAI plans to reduce revenue share to Microsoft by 2030. 2. Current agreement shares 20%, but expected to lower to 10%. 3. Microsoft's substantial investment in OpenAI is under scrutiny. 4. New corporate structure proposed by OpenAI needs Microsoft's approval. 5. Microsoft retains rights to OpenAI's IP in its products.

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Why Bearish?

A reduction in revenue share could harm Microsoft's expected income from OpenAI, impacting overall valuation. Historical shifts in partnership terms have provoked stock reactions, including outcomes from reduced revenue streams from partnerships like those seen with LinkedIn and other tech acquisitions.

How important is it?

The change in revenue sharing is significant due to Microsoft's heavy investment in OpenAI, impacting investor confidence and future revenue predictions. The direct correlation to MSFT's revenue makes this information crucial for stock performance by aligning or diverging management expectations.

Why Long Term?

The shift in revenue structure will take time to manifest fully, notably by 2030. Similar long-term adjustments in tech partnerships often reshape company forecasts and valuations gradually.

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