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Redfin Reports Home Tours Rise Modestly to Start 2025, But That Hasn't Translated to More Sales

1. Homebuyer Demand Index rose 2% month-over-month and year-over-year. 2. High mortgage rates are not deterring some buyers from entering the market. 3. Pending home sales fell 3.1% year-over-year despite increased buyer interest. 4. New listings dropped 2.5%, indicating potential supply constraints. 5. Competitive bidding is driving urgency among homebuyers amid high mortgage rates.

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Why Bullish?

The increase in homebuyer demand may support RDFN's business despite high mortgage rates.

How important is it?

Changes in buyer behavior can directly influence RDFN's sales and stock performance.

Why Short Term?

Immediate effects observed; future demand trends will clarify longer-term impacts.

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RDFN
SEATTLE--(BUSINESS WIRE)--(NASDAQ: RDFN)—More house hunters are starting their home search as the new year kicks off, according to a new report from Redfin (redfin.com), the technology-powered real estate brokerage. Redfin’s Homebuyer Demand Index—a seasonally adjusted measure of tours and other buying services from Redfin agents—posted a small 2% increase from a month earlier during the week ending January 5, and it’s also up 2% year over year. There are several reasons a few more buyers are out there: Some have accepted high mortgage rates; daily average rates hit a seven-month high this week and they’re unlikely to decline significantly soon. Some are jumping into the market now that the holidays have passed and a new year has begun, and some are taking advantage of the fact that there are more homes on the market than there have been over the last few years. “Three of the four offers my clients have made in the last week have competed against other offers with competitive terms, like waiving all contingencies and releasing earnest money early. Some homes are getting multiple offers within 24 hours of hitting the market,” said Emily Lam, a Redfin Premier agent in the Seattle area. “Some buyers are getting serious about their search because they’ve come to terms with 7% rates and they’re worried that if they wait longer, home prices will just keep rising. Others are starting their search in hopes that rates will decline soon. Either way, I’m advising buyers to get serious now because desirable listings will get more competitive as the year goes on.” Nationwide, the small increase in tours hasn’t yet translated to an uptick in sales. Pending home sales fell 3.1% from a year earlier during the four weeks ending January 5, though that decline may be artificially large because Redfin is comparing it to a period last year when mortgage rates posted a big drop, bringing a surge in demand. On the selling side, new listings are down 2.5%, the biggest decline in over a year. But for the reason noted above, that drop may appear larger than it actually is. Redfin will keep a close eye on pending sales and new listings over the next few weeks to determine whether more home tours eventually turn into more home sales, and whether more sellers start listing their homes as we get settled into 2025. For Redfin economists’ takes on the housing market, please visit Redfin’s “From Our Economists” page. Leading indicators Indicators of homebuying demand and activity Value (if applicable) Recent change Year-over-year change Source Daily average 30-year fixed mortgage rate 7.17% (Jan. 8) Highest level since May Up from 6.75% Mortgage News Daily Weekly average 30-year fixed mortgage rate 6.91% (week ending Jan. 2) Highest level since July Up from 6.61% Freddie Mac Mortgage-purchase applications (seasonally adjusted) Down 7% from 1 week earlier (as of week ending Jan. 3 ) Down 15% Mortgage Bankers Association Redfin Homebuyer Demand Index (seasonally adjusted) Up 2% from a month earlier (as of week ending Jan. 5) Up 2% Redfin Homebuyer Demand Index, a measure of tours and other homebuying services from Redfin agents Google searches for “home for sale” Up 29% from a month earlier (as of Jan. 6) Down 8% Google Trends Key housing-market data U.S. highlights: Four weeks ending Jan. 5, 2025 Redfin’s national metrics include data from 400+ U.S. metro areas, and is based on homes listed and/or sold during the period. Weekly housing-market data goes back through 2015. Subject to revision. Four weeks ending Jan. 5, 2025 Year-over-year change Notes Median sale price $379,988 5.5% Median asking price $374,975 4.5% Median monthly mortgage payment $2,525 at a 6.91% mortgage rate 6.7% Pending sales 50,445 -3.1% Biggest decline since September New listings 44,519 -2.5% Biggest decline in over a year Active listings 892,364 10.6% Months of supply 4.3 +0.3 pts. 4 to 5 months of supply is considered balanced, with a lower number indicating seller’s market conditions. Share of homes off market in two weeks 22.5% Down from 23% Median days on market 49 +6 days Share of homes sold above list price 22.1% Down from 24% Average sale-to-list price ratio 98.2% Essentially unchanged Metro-level highlights: Four weeks ending Jan. 5, 2025 Redfin’s metro-level data includes the 50 most populous U.S. metros. Select metros may be excluded from time to time to ensure data accuracy. Metros with biggest year-over-year increases Metros with biggest year-over-year decreases Notes Median sale price Milwaukee (19.5%) Cleveland (17.1%) Warren, MI (13.6%) Philadelphia (13.5%) Nassau County, NY (11%) Austin, TX (-1%) Declined in 1 metro Pending sales Anaheim, CA (10%) Cincinnati (7.7%) San Jose, CA (7%) Portland, OR (3.1%) Montgomery County, PA (2.7%) Orlando, FL (-13.5%) Houston (-12.3%) Fort Lauderdale, FL (-11.4%) Miami (-11%) Nashville, TN (-10.5%) Increased in 9 metros New listings Washington, D.C. (9.4%) Phoenix (9.2%) Virginia Beach, VA (7.2%) Miami (6.6%) Las Vegas (6%) Newark, NJ (-23.6%) Detroit (-20.8%) Warren, MI (-19.7%) Austin, TX (-18.1%) San Antonio (-17.9%) Increased in 13 metros To view the full report, including charts, please visit: https://www.redfin.com/news/housing-market-update-home-tours-increase-sales-fall About Redfin Redfin (www.redfin.com) is a technology-powered real estate company. We help people find a place to live with brokerage, rentals, lending, and title insurance services. We run the country's #1 real estate brokerage site. Our customers can save thousands in fees while working with a top agent. Our home-buying customers see homes first with on-demand tours, and our lending and title services help them close quickly. Our rentals business empowers millions nationwide to find apartments and houses for rent. Since launching in 2006, we've saved customers more than $1.6 billion in commissions. We serve approximately 100 markets across the U.S. and Canada and employ over 4,000 people. Redfin’s subsidiaries and affiliated brands include: Bay Equity Home Loans®, Rent.™, Apartment Guide®, Title Forward® and WalkScore®. For more information or to contact a local Redfin real estate agent, visit www.redfin.com. To learn about housing market trends and download data, visit the Redfin Data Center. To be added to Redfin's press release distribution list, email press@redfin.com. To view Redfin's press center, click here.

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