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S&P CORELOGIC CASE-SHILLER INDEX RECORDS 3.4% ANNUAL GAIN IN MARCH 2025

1. S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller reported a 3.4% annual home price gain in March 2025. 2. Home price growth slowing, with only 0.9% increase from the last six months. 3. Supply shortages support home prices despite affordability challenges in the market. 4. New York leads with an 8% annual gain, Tampa sees 2.2% decline. 5. Monthly upswing indicates seasonal recovery boosting housing market strength.

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Why Neutral?

Home price growth deceleration and affordability issues may limit SPGI's performance. Historically, weak housing data often leads to slower growth in SPGI's revenue from indices related to real estate.

How important is it?

While the article provides insights relevant to SPGI, key economic indicators may overshadow direct impacts. The home price metrics suggest caution but are consistent with longer-term growth trends.

Why Short Term?

Immediate market sentiment may react to these results but long-term gains depend on broader economic shifts. For example, previous periods of housing stagnation have seen short-lived effects before recovery.

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, /PRNewswire/ -- S&P Dow Jones Indices (S&P DJI) today released the March 2025 results for the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices. The leading measure of U.S. home prices recorded a 3.4% annual gain in March 2025, a slight decrease from the previous reading in February 2025. More than 27 years of history are available for the data series and can be accessed in full by going to https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/index-family/indicators/sp-corelogic-case-shiller/. YEAR-OVER-YEAR The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 3.4% annual return for March, down from a 4% annual gain in the previous month. The 10-City Composite saw an annual increase of 4.8%, down from a 5.2% annual increase in the previous month. The 20-City Composite posted a year-over-year increase of 4.1%, down from a 4.5% increase in the previous month. New York again reported the highest annual gain among the 20 cities with an 8% increase in March, followed by Chicago and Cleveland with annual increases of 6.5% and 5.9%, respectively. Tampa posted the lowest return, falling 2.2%. MONTH-OVER-MONTH The pre-seasonally adjusted U.S. National, 10-City Composite, and 20-City Composite Indices saw slight upward trends in March, posting gains of 0.8%, 1.2%, and 1.1%, respectively. After seasonal adjustment, the U.S. National Index posted a decrease of -0.3%. The 10-City Composite Index recorded a 0.01% increase and the 20-City Composite Index presented a -0.1% decrease. ANALYSIS "Home price growth continued to decelerate on an annual basis in March, even as the market experienced its strongest monthly gains so far in 2025," said Nicholas Godec, CFA, CAIA, CIPM, Head of Fixed Income Tradables & Commodities at S&P Dow Jones Indices. "This divergence between slowing year-over-year appreciation and renewed spring momentum highlighted how the housing market shifted from mere resilience to a broader seasonal recovery. Limited supply and steady demand drove prices higher across most metropolitan areas, despite affordability challenges remaining firmly in place. "The National Composite Home Price Index posted a 3.4% annual gain in March 2025, down from February's 4.0% pace. Notably, only 0.9% of that year-over-year increase came from the past six months, indicating that most appreciation was front-loaded earlier in the year-long period. This pattern underscored a broad cooling trend in second-half 2024 home prices even as spring 2025 arrived. By comparison, the 20-City Composite rose 4.1% year over year, and the 10-City Composite climbed 4.8%, reflecting somewhat stronger annual appreciation in the largest urban markets. "Regional price trends remained varied. New York again reported the highest annual gain among the 20 cities, with prices up 8.0% year over year in March, followed by Chicago (+6.5%) and Cleveland (+5.9%). At the other end of the spectrum, Dallas barely stayed positive at +0.2% YoY, and Tampa saw prices fall 2.2%, making it the only metro to post a year-over-year decline. These results underscored how markets that experienced sharp run-ups earlier in the cycle – particularly in the Sun Belt – continued to adjust under the weight of higher mortgage rates and strained affordability. "On a month-over-month basis, March saw an even stronger broad-based upswing. Eighteen of the 20 metro areas registered positive monthly price gains before seasonal adjustment, signaling that price increases were widespread across the country. Cleveland (+1.8%), Seattle (+1.8%), and New York (+1.5%) led all markets with the largest March increases, as the spring selling season boosted prices. By contrast, Tampa (-0.3%) and Miami (-0.2%) were the only cities to see prices slip for the month. Nationally, the U.S. National Index rose 0.8% in March (NSA) – the biggest one-month jump so far this year – but it declined 0.3% (SA) after adjusting for seasonal trends, indicating that March's hefty gains largely aligned with typical springtime patterns. "Looking at the market environment, affordability remained severely constrained, though it did not worsen materially in early 2025 as borrowing costs stabilized. Mortgage rates hovered in the mid-6% range throughout March, keeping monthly payment burdens near multi-decade highs relative to incomes. This continued to weigh on buyer demand, but persistent supply shortages helped counteract the headwinds. Many existing homeowners remained reluctant to sell and give up low pandemic-era mortgage rates, and new construction activity stayed limited – a combination that kept inventory levels extremely tight. The scarcity of homes for sale offset softer demand and helped support home prices, enabling a broad seasonal uptick despite the challenging affordability backdrop. "Even as year-over-year gains slowed, U.S. home prices remained at record highs, ensuring long-term homeowners retained substantial equity," Godec concluded. "This spring's price resurgence illustrated that seasonal demand and tight supply could reignite price growth, but it also underscored the housing market's continued sensitivity to mortgage rates and affordability constraints." SUPPORTING DATA Table 1 below shows the housing boom/bust peaks and troughs for the three composites along with the current levels and percentage changes from the peaks and troughs. 2006 Peak 2012 Trough Current Index Level Date Level Date From Peak (%) Level From Trough (%) From Peak (%) National 184.61 Jul-06 133.99 Feb-12 -27.4 % 327.68 144.6 % 77.5 % 20-City 206.52 Jul-06 134.07 Mar-12 -35.1 % 338.89 152.8 % 64.1 % 10-City 226.29 Jun-06 146.45 Mar-12 -35.3 % 358.64 144.9 % 58.5 % Table 2 below summarizes the results for March 2025. The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices could be revised for the prior 24 months, based on the receipt of additional source data. March 2025 March/February February/January 1-Year Metropolitan Area Level Change (%) Change (%) Change (%) Atlanta 248.98 0.9 % 0.3 % 2.5 % Boston 343.52 0.7 % 0.4 % 4.7 % Charlotte 281.23 0.7 % 0.0 % 2.6 % Chicago 214.92 1.2 % 0.6 % 6.5 % Cleveland 196.68 1.8 % 0.3 % 5.9 % Dallas 295.71 0.5 % 0.1 % 0.2 % Denver 319.95 1.1 % 0.6 % 1.4 % Detroit 192.45 1.1 % 0.5 % 5.8 % Las Vegas 302.69 0.7 % 0.1 % 4.7 % Los Angeles 451.86 1.5 % 1.5 % 4.1 % Miami 440.82 -0.2 % -0.3 % 1.8 % Minneapolis 242.01 1.1 % 0.2 % 2.8 % New York 325.65 1.5 % 0.5 % 8.0 % Phoenix 330.80 0.1 % 0.1 % 1.9 % Portland 331.84 0.8 % 0.5 % 1.4 % San Diego 445.11 1.0 % 1.1 % 1.7 % San Francisco 361.70 1.1 % 1.8 % 1.6 % Seattle 398.37 1.8 % 1.6 % 4.2 % Tampa 373.35 -0.3 % -0.3 % -2.2 % Washington 336.61 1.3 % 0.7 % 4.5 % Composite-10 358.64 1.2 % 0.8 % 4.8 % Composite-20 338.89 1.1 % 0.7 % 4.1 % U.S. National 327.68 0.8 % 0.5 % 3.4 % Sources: S&P Dow Jones Indices and CoreLogic Data through March 2025 Table 3 below shows a summary of the monthly changes using the seasonally adjusted (SA) and non-seasonally adjusted (NSA) data. Since its launch in early 2006, the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices have published, and the markets have followed and reported on, the non-seasonally adjusted data set used in the headline indices. For analytical purposes, S&P Dow Jones Indices publishes a seasonally adjusted data set covered in the headline indices, as well as for the 17 of 20 markets with tiered price indices and the five condo markets that are tracked. March/February Change (%) February/January Change (%) Metropolitan Area NSA SA NSA SA Atlanta 0.9 % 0.1 % 0.3 % 0.3 % Boston 0.7 % -0.4 % 0.4 % 0.3 % Charlotte 0.7 % -0.3 % 0.0 % 0.1 % Chicago 1.2 % 0.3 % 0.6 % 0.7 % Cleveland 1.8 % 0.6 % 0.3 % 0.6 % Dallas 0.5 % -0.8 % 0.1 % -0.3 % Denver 1.1 % -0.7 % 0.6 % -0.2 % Detroit 1.1 % 0.2 % 0.5 % 0.4 % Las Vegas 0.7 % -0.1 % 0.1 % 0.2 % Los Angeles 1.5 % 0.1 % 1.5 % 0.7 % Miami -0.2 % -0.8 % -0.3 % 0.3 % Minneapolis 1.1 % -0.1 % 0.2 % 0.0 % New York 1.5 % 0.9 % 0.5 % 0.9 % Phoenix 0.1 % -0.7 % 0.1 % 0.0 % Portland 0.8 % -0.7 % 0.5 % -0.3 % San Diego 1.0 % -0.8 % 1.1 % -0.4 % San Francisco 1.1 % -1.4 % 1.8 % 0.2 % Seattle 1.8 % -0.6 % 1.6 % 0.0 % Tampa -0.3 % -1.0 % -0.3 % -0.1 % Washington 1.3 % 0.0 % 0.7 % 0.2 % Composite-10 1.2 % 0.0 % 0.8 % 0.5 % Composite-20 1.1 % -0.1 % 0.7 % 0.4 % U.S. National 0.8 % -0.3 % 0.5 % 0.3 % Sources: S&P Dow Jones Indices and CoreLogic Data through March 2025 For more information about S&P Dow Jones Indices, please visit www.spglobal.com/spdji. ABOUT S&P DOW JONES INDICES S&P Dow Jones Indices is the largest global resource for essential index-based concepts, data and research, and home to iconic financial market indicators, such as the S&P 500® and the Dow Jones Industrial Average®. More assets are invested in products based on our indices than products based on indices from any other provider in the world. Since Charles Dow invented the first index in 1884, S&P DJI has been innovating and developing indices across the spectrum of asset classes helping to define the way investors measure and trade the markets. S&P Dow Jones Indices is a division of S&P Global (NYSE: SPGI), which provides essential intelligence for individuals, companies, and governments to make decisions with confidence. For more information, visit www.spglobal.com/spdji. FOR MORE INFORMATION: Alyssa AugustynCommunications ManagerNew York, USA+1 773-919-4732[email protected]  S&P Dow Jones Indices' interactive blog, IndexologyBlog.com, delivers real-time commentary and analysis from industry experts across S&P Global on a wide range of topics impacting residential home prices, homebuilding and mortgage financing in the United States. Readers and viewers can visit the blog at www.indexologyblog.com, where feedback and commentary are welcomed and encouraged. The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices are published on the last Tuesday of each month at 9:00 am ET. They are constructed to accurately track the price path of typical single-family homes located in each metropolitan area provided. Each index combines matched price pairs for thousands of individual houses from the available universe of arms-length sales data. The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index tracks the value of single-family housing within the United States. The index is a composite of single-family home price indices for the nine U.S. Census divisions and is calculated quarterly. The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 10-City Composite Home Price Index is a value-weighted average of the 10 original metro area indices. The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Home Price Index is a value-weighted average of the 20 metro area indices. The indices have a base value of 100 in January 2000; thus, for example, a current index value of 150 translates to a 50% appreciation rate since January 2000 for a typical home located within the subject market. These indices are generated and published under agreements between S&P Dow Jones Indices and CoreLogic, Inc. The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices are produced by CoreLogic, Inc. In addition to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices, CoreLogic also offers home price index sets covering thousands of zip codes, counties, metro areas, and state markets. The indices, published by S&P Dow Jones Indices, represent just a small subset of the broader data available through CoreLogic. Case-Shiller® and CoreLogic® are trademarks of CoreLogic Case-Shiller, LLC or its affiliates or subsidiaries ("CoreLogic") and have been licensed for use by S&P Dow Jones Indices. None of the financial products based on indices produced by CoreLogic or its predecessors in interest are sponsored, sold, or promoted by CoreLogic, and neither CoreLogic nor any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, or predecessors in interest makes any representation regarding the advisability of investing in such products. SOURCE S&P Dow Jones Indices WANT YOUR COMPANY'S NEWS FEATURED ON PRNEWSWIRE.COM? 440k+ Newsrooms & Influencers 9k+ Digital Media Outlets 270k+ Journalists Opted In

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