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S&P Global Mobility: March 2025 US auto sales potentially ride one last wave

1. March US auto sales projected to exceed 1.45 million units. 2. Sales pace estimated at 16.3 million SAAR, up from 15.5 million. 3. Expected tariffs could lead to higher auto prices and demand risks. 4. Battery-electric vehicle share predicted to increase to 8.5%.

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FAQ

Why Neutral?

While auto sales growth looks positive, tariffs create uncertainty. Historical sales fluctuations due to tariffs suggest cautious optimism.

How important is it?

The article's focus on sales projections and tariffs can impact SPGI's market outlook.

Why Short Term?

Immediate effects from March sales data and tariffs are likely. Past patterns show tariff impacts can be swift.

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S&P Global Mobility projects that US auto sales in March will crest over 1.45 million units, as consumers and automakers try to get ahead of tariffs , /PRNewswire/ -- With volume for the month projected at 1.45 million units, March 2025 U.S. auto sales are estimated to translate to an estimated sales pace of 16.3 million units (seasonally adjusted annual rate: SAAR), according to S&P Global Mobility. This would bring the SAAR average in the first quarter of the year to a level of 16.0 million units.  While the first quarter of 2025 would reflect progress from a year-ago reading of 15.5 million units, it might be the high mark for a while, as auto tariffs take effect in April. "Automakers, by way of incentives, and savvy consumers are likely attempting to get ahead of future uncertainty surrounding auto pricing levels by taking advantage of March deals," said Chris Hopson, principal analyst at S&P Global Mobility. "Downside risks to the auto demand and production environment abound as consumers face potential higher auto prices as a result of expected tariffs to imported vehicles and parts." The S&P Global Mobility US auto outlook for 2025 reflects sustained, but more moderate growth levels for light vehicle sales, but consumer pressures and potential auto tariffs create notable downside risks to volume estimates at this time. U.S. Light Vehicle Sales Mar 25 (Est) Feb 25 Mar 24 Total Light Vehicle Units, NSA 1,454,000 1,219,841 1,432,132 In millions, SAAR 16.3 16.0 15.7 Light Truck In millions, SAAR 13.3 13.0 12.7 Passenger Car In millions, SAAR 3.0 3.0 3.0 Source: S&P Global Mobility (Est), U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis Continued development of battery-electric vehicle (BEV) sales remains an assumption in the longer term S&P Global Mobility light vehicle sales forecast.  In the immediate term, some month-to-month volatility is anticipated. March BEV share is expected to reach 8.5%, an increase from February reported figures and reflective of the uneasiness as automakers, dealers and consumers continue to digest potential changes to BEV incentives.  About S&P Global Mobility At S&P Global Mobility, we provide invaluable insights derived from unmatched automotive data, enabling our customers to anticipate change and make decisions with conviction. Our expertise helps them to optimize their businesses, reach the right consumers, and shape the future of mobility. We open the door to automotive innovation, revealing the buying patterns of today and helping customers plan for the emerging technologies of tomorrow. S&P Global Mobility is a division of S&P Global (NYSE: SPGI). S&P Global is the world's foremost provider of credit ratings, benchmarks, analytics and workflow solutions in the global capital, commodity and automotive markets. With every one of our offerings, we help many of the world's leading organizations navigate the economic landscape so they can plan for tomorrow, today. For more information, visit www.spglobal.com/mobility. Media Contact: Michelle CulverS&P Global Mobility248.728.7496 or 248.342.6211[email protected] SOURCE S&P Global Mobility WANT YOUR COMPANY'S NEWS FEATURED ON PRNEWSWIRE.COM? 440k+ Newsrooms & Influencers 9k+ Digital Media Outlets 270k+ Journalists Opted In

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