1. STLD's Q4 2025 earnings guidance is $1.65 to $1.69 per share. 2. Expected lower profits due to decreased steel selling prices and seasonal demand. 3. Fourth quarter production decreased by 140,000 to 150,000 tons. 4. Order backlog extends into Q2 2026; demand expected to improve next year. 5. Company repurchased $200 million of its common stock this quarter.
FAQ
Why Bearish?
Q4 earnings forecast shows a significant decline from Q3, impacting investor confidence. Historical trends point to lowered profits causing stock price corrections.
How important is it?
Lower earnings guidance could hinder stock price, though potential future recovery exists.
Why Short Term?
Immediate earnings impact is negative, but future demand signals improvement in 2026.
Steel Dynamics (STLD) Issues Fourth Quarter 2025 Earnings Guidance
Steel Dynamics, Inc. (NASDAQ/GS: STLD) announced its earnings guidance for the fourth quarter of 2025, projecting earnings between $1.65 and $1.69 per diluted share. This figure shows a decline compared to the $2.74 earned per diluted share in the sequential third quarter of 2025 and a notable increase from last year's fourth quarter earnings of $1.36 per diluted share.
Factors Influencing Fourth Quarter Performance
The anticipated profitability for Steel Dynamics (STLD) in Q4 2025 heavily reflects reduced average realized selling prices alongside lower production volumes. Seasonal demand and planned maintenance outages at the company’s flat rolled steel mills are primary contributors to this downturn.
- Estimated reduction in flat rolled steel production by 140,000 to 150,000 tons
- Average indexed hot rolled steel prices fell by over $70 per ton from July to October 2025
- Improvement in flat rolled steel prices noted as import volumes decline
Performance Across Business Segments
Steel Dynamics expects earnings from its metals recycling operations to be lower than those seen in the previous quarter, primarily resulting from diminished seasonal shipments amid planned maintenance across the domestic steel industry. This has consequently affected ferrous scrap demand.
Similarly, earnings from the company's steel fabrication operations are projected to decline, driven by seasonally lower shipments that offset any marginal expansion in metal spreads due to steady average selling values and lower steel raw material costs.
Future Outlook
The order backlog for Steel Dynamics extends into the second quarter of 2026, suggesting a steady current order activity with expectations for improved volumes as interest rates decrease. Support through the U.S. infrastructure program and onshoring will likely boost demand for both flat rolled and long product steel.
Additionally, the company is making strides in its aluminum operations, with successful commissioning and startup of its Columbus, Mississippi flat rolled products mill, producing finished products for industrial clients and receiving product qualifications across various sectors.
Stock Repurchase and Earnings Call
As part of its ongoing financial management, Steel Dynamics has repurchased approximately $200 million, equating to about one percent of its common stock in the fourth quarter of 2025.
The company plans to release its fourth quarter 2025 earnings before the market opens on January 26, 2026, followed by a conference call at 11:00 a.m. Eastern Standard Time to discuss performance details.
About Steel Dynamics
Steel Dynamics is a prominent industrial metals solutions provider based in the United States and Mexico. Using a circular manufacturing model, the company focuses on producing quality products with lower carbon emissions through recycled scrap. As one of North America's largest steel producers and metal recyclers, Steel Dynamics also emphasizes investments in aluminum operations to expand its product offerings for diverse markets.
Forward-Looking Statements
This announcement includes predictive statements regarding various aspects such as market conditions and future profitability. These forward-looking statements are subject to a range of risks and uncertainties that could impact actual outcomes. Stakeholders are encouraged to review the company’s detailed disclosures in its recent filings, which are available on the Securities and Exchange Commission’s website as well as on the company website under "Investors – SEC Filings."