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Why bond-market tumult likely peaked this morning — before Trump’s tariff pause - MarketWatch

1. U.S. Treasury market turmoil peaked as volatility signaled capitulation. 2. MOVE Index reaching 172 indicates significant bond market stress relief. 3. Trump's tariff pause improved stock market sentiment, leading to sharp gains. 4. Gold prices rose, suggesting reduced bond market volatility. 5. Successful 10-year debt auction calmed fears over U.S. debt interest.

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FAQ

Why Bullish?

The calming of market volatility and positive stock reactions typically reduce VIX levels. Historical trends show VIX drops in periods following substantial market recoveries.

How important is it?

Recent volatility in Treasury markets significantly correlates with stock market sentiment, influencing VIX behavior.

Why Short Term?

The immediate response to market calming and decreased tariffs suggests quick impact on VIX.

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