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SpaceX Bearish Thesis Deepens on Lack of Profitability and Peak Valuation

Jul 13, 2026, 1:56 PM EDT2 sourcesAI-analyzed

Why it may matterVerify against the original reporting

Valuation exuberance followed by profit concerns, limited float, and potential insider selling create downside risk; recent sub-IPO lows reinforce near-term pressure and risk of further multiple compression.

AI summary

What happened, with direct paths to the underlying reporting

Bearish investor Noble argues SpaceX's IPO priced at peak revenue multiples despite no profits, suggesting insiders may dump shares as valuations unwind. With a ~$5B annual loss and a limited float, skepticism over long-term profitability and S&P 500 eligibility could keep SPCX under pressure in the near term.

SpaceX IPO valued ~90x revenue; peak ~140x. Insider selling risk.
SpaceX has never posted a profit; last year lost about $5B.
Shares hit post-IPO lows; intraday low around $137.68.
Limited float fuels demand; profitability doubts remain a concern.
Analysts disagree on long-term value; S&P 500 inclusion risk noted.

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