ASML’s EUV systems are foundational to producing cutting-edge AI chips, tying Nvidia and TSMC to a Dutch supplier with a near-monopoly on essential manufacturing gear. With each machine costing around $400 million and more than 100,000 parts sourced from hundreds of suppliers, ASML enjoys a durable moat amid a multi-year AI capex cycle that could lift earnings visibility.
ASML targets producing more than 110 EUV tools in 2028 to meet AI-related demand, per JPMorgan after a CFO meeting. The firm says 2027 output is nearly sold out and can make at least 80 units, with a 30% increase target for 2028. If achieved, this could boost backlog visibility and capex planning, potentially supporting the stock over the coming 12–24 months.
Anthropic founder Dario Amodei urged slowing AI development, echoed by OpenAI's Altman, triggering a broad AI sector pullback. ASML dropped over 5% in Europe as investors fret that data-center capex and chip demand could slow in the near term. Long-term lithography demand remains intact, but sentiment risk weighs on ASML shares in the near term.
ASML announced the Eindhoven plant groundbreaking, with CFO Roger Dassen noting the AI boom has improved customers' mood. The report stops short of providing order metrics or timelines, making near-term visibility limited. The capacity expansion could support future AI-related chip-production demand, potentially boosting ASML's revenue trajectory if the AI cycle remains robust.
ASML will collaborate with its major customers to develop its most advanced tools for large data-center chips, including Nvidia. The move signals ongoing hyperscale capex and could bolster EUV tool demand, though no timelines or volumes were disclosed. Investors should watch for any concrete orders or backlog updates.
ASML and TSMC announced a collaborative initiative to move the industry to 12-inch photomasks for High NA EUV, targeting a 12-inch mask pilot line by 2031 and full readiness by 2033. The plan could boost fab productivity, reduce chipmaking costs, and remove stitching constraints, with broad industry interest and a 2030 start for TSMC’s use of High NA EUV in high-volume production.