With Brazil's presidential vote unfolding, EWZ faces a bifurcated path depending on the winner. A Bolsonaro victory could accelerate reform-driven growth, lowering yields and lifting equities and the real, while Lula's win may delay reforms and cap upside. Major banks outline Brazil upside if reforms proceed, but risks include higher global rates and El Niño impacts.
EWZ has rallied about 19% year-to-date as Brazil equities recover, aided by stronger commodity prices and optimism around the October general election. The surge in call-heavy options activity, with implied volatility rising to 0.39, suggests traders anticipate continued upside or heightened volatility. If commodities remain firm and political risk stays supportive, EWZ could extend gains in the near term.
Brazilian ethanol and sugar sectors are reacting to new 25% tariffs on Brazilian goods by the U.S. The move raises trade tensions and could slow Brazilian export growth, potentially pressuring BRL and Brazil equities. EWZ may underperform if tariffs persist or widen, unless a diplomatic breakthrough or tariff relief occurs.
The USTR has proposed 25% tariffs on Brazilian goods under Section 301, with a July 6 hearing forthcoming. The move targets practices such as anti-corruption enforcement, IP protection, ethanol access, and deforestation. If enacted, EWZ could face near-term weakness as Brazil's exporters and currency face headwinds, though a negotiated outcome could limit downside.
Trump plans to impose 50% tariffs on all Brazilian products starting August 1. This tariff could sharply impact Brazil's agricultural sector, affecting its economy.