Oil advanced on geopolitical risk, with Brent around $112 and WTI near $110, lifting USO briefly before a pullback as markets priced in potential supply disruption. Reports of Houthi attacks on Saudi targets and Gulf shipping disruptions added risk premium, though Saudi claims remained unverified. The IEA signaled readiness to release emergency oil, which could cap a spike while keeping near-term volatility intact.
Paul Tudor Jones expects a further $20–$25 rally in oil to roughly $114–$119, citing post-midterm tensions with Iran as a key risk factor. He argues that higher oil will be broadly negative for stocks, given a looming supply overhang from IPOs and insider sales into 2027. The USO rose about 0.7% after his comments, underscoring crude’s sensitivity to macro and geopolitical developments.
Gas prices have declined recently, with gasoline down about 40 cents to $4.29 and diesel down about six cents; experts warn the trend may not last due to hurricane disruption and geopolitical tensions. USO edged higher, aided by the softer pump prices and a volatile near-term outlook for crude amid supply concerns.
Oil prices remain volatile as U.S.-Iran tensions and Middle East supply risks persist, with shipping disruptions and refinery bottlenecks supporting prices. Trump’s statement that the U.S. will not strike Iran before the election adds political risk that could cap upside gains near the election and keeps oil-sensitive assets like USO in play.
USO climbed to a 52-week high as crude futures surged on tight supply and geopolitical friction in the Middle East. OPEC’s report shows Saudi production dropping sharply, tightening global balances, while discussions on extended shipping risks through key chokepoints add a potential supply disruption premium. With Brent above $106 and WTI near $101, near-term upside for USO appears likely.
Brent crude jumped more than 7% to about $90.45 after Trump signaled a strong response to Iran's missile strike, lifting oil prices and fueling USO's gains. The ETF rose about 7% as MACD turned bullish and the 50-day moving average stays above the 200-day, suggesting a near-term uptrend unless July weakness proves durable.
