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Credit default swaps are back in fashion — even if the panic might be overblown

1. Investors are increasingly buying CDS to hedge against U.S. debt default risk. 2. The cost of 1-year CDS has risen sharply to 52 basis points this year. 3. Concerns about U.S. fiscal health and political dysfunction are driving investor behavior. 4. The upcoming debt ceiling negotiations could significantly impact the market sentiment. 5. Historical CDS spikes often correlate with U.S. debt worries, notably in past crises.

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FAQ

Why Bearish?

Rising CDS costs indicate growing investor anxiety about U.S. debt stability. Historical trends show that such spikes can precede market volatility, as seen in 2011 and 2013.

How important is it?

Concerns over U.S. debt default directly affect market confidence, influencing S&P 500 performance. Investors are likely to be cautious, potentially leading to selling pressure.

Why Short Term?

The market may react to resolved debt ceiling negotiations soon. Similar past situations suggest transient effects on S&P 500 until clarity is achieved.

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