Goldman Sachs increases recession probability, warns of further downgrade if more tariffs take effect
1. Goldman Sachs raises recession probability from 35% to 45% amid tariff tensions. 2. GDP growth forecast for 2025 cut to 0.5% due to tightening financial conditions. 3. New tariffs could raise effective US tariff rate by 20 percentage points. 4. Foreign consumer boycotts could reduce GDP by 0.1% to 0.2%. 5. Fed may cut rates due to recession risks; further cuts expected if recession ensues.