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Here’s the playbook that bond traders are looking at if Trump loses his tariff fight in the Supreme Court

1. Supreme Court ruling could affect tariffs and lead to stock market volatility. 2. Potential refunds of up to $140 billion for importers if tariffs are ruled illegal. 3. 10-year Treasury yield at highs not seen since September, signaling market concern. 4. Costco is among companies suing for tariff refunds in light of Supreme Court ruling. 5. Higher borrowing costs and inflation strain households and small businesses.

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FAQ

Why Bearish?

A Supreme Court ruling against tariffs could create economic uncertainty, affecting stock performance. Historical tariff disputes have led to market volatility, as seen in April 2021.

How important is it?

The tariff situation directly relates to Costco's operations and potential financial exposure, making it a critical factor for investors.

Why Short Term?

Market reactions to tariff rulings are typically immediate, influencing stock prices swiftly. Past Supreme Court decisions on tariffs have resulted in rapid fluctuations in market conditions.

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