1. Employers planning raises of 3.5% for 2026, steady from 2025. 2. Job-switching pay growth is higher than job stayers, at 7.1%. 3. Labor market growth is stagnating, with additional jobs only at 22,000. 4. Fear of uncertainty keeps employees from job-hopping despite loyalty penalties. 5. Merit increase budgets show slight decline, dropping to 3% from 3.2%.
The labor market's stagnation can signal economic caution, but steady wages provide stability. Historical events like the 2008 recession show increases in SPY when major economic indicators are stable, despite not being overwhelmingly strong.
The employment and wage data affects consumer spending and overall economic sentiment, closely tied to SPY. While some dynamics may show stability, hesitation in job-hopping and stagnancy could affect economic growth.
In the short term, market reactions can be influenced by immediate economic reports. Longer-term trends will depend on sustained economic recovery or downturn stabilization.