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Mortgage Rates Are Finally Falling. Here’s Why They Can Move Fast.

1. Mortgage rates are at their lowest level since 2024 due to Fed cut expectations. 2. The spread between Treasury yields and mortgage bonds has sharply compressed recently. 3. Lower-coupon bonds are gaining preference, improving pricing for in-demand loans. 4. Long-term bond yields are influenced by recession risks and Fed interest rate outlook. 5. Mortgage demand may increase as refinancing opportunities arise from lower rates.

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FAQ

Why Bullish?

Lower mortgage rates could stimulate housing market activity, thus boosting SPY holdings in related sectors, similar to 2012 post-recession trends.

How important is it?

Lower mortgage rates drive economic growth in housing and financial sectors, influencing SPY.

Why Short Term?

Immediate effects on mortgage rates influence consumer behavior, with historical precedence seen in housing market spikes post-rate cuts.

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