1. 30-year fixed mortgage rate rises to 6.35%, impacting affordability. 2. Fed's decisions influence Treasury yields and mortgage rates. 3. Current changes in mortgage rates may affect housing market later. 4. Spring selling season beginning late January is pivotal for market. 5. Expect potential shifts in monetary policy in upcoming months.
FAQ
Why Neutral?
Mortgage rates are rising but still significantly lower than earlier peaks. Thus, immediate negative impact on SPY seems unlikely, akin to similar past events where trends in mortgage rates had muted short-term effects.
How important is it?
Though mortgage rates are important for consumer spending, the immediate influence on SPY is limited. Buyer sentiment and housing market performance are crucial but may unfold over the following months.
Why Short Term?
Recent increases in mortgage rates may not influence SPY until early next year. The real impact will depend on investment behavior during the spring selling season, similar to past seasonal trends.