1. Trump's odds of picking Warsh for Fed chair are at 42%. 2. Kevin Hassett is still the frontrunner at 50%. 3. Total betting volume on Kalshi surpasses $10.2 million. 4. Affordability pressures are influencing Fed chair selection. 5. Waller's chances have dropped to 6% in the prediction market.
FAQ
Why Bullish?
The possible selection of Warsh or Hassett, both supportive of pro-growth policies, could boost market confidence and spending. Historical instances show that changes in Fed leadership can have immediate effects on stock market valuations.
How important is it?
The dynamics surrounding the selection of the Fed chair can significantly affect monetary policy and market sentiment, impacting the S&P 500. The candidates are perceived as aligning with growth-oriented economic policies.
Why Short Term?
The S&P 500 may react quickly to Fed leadership changes, as investor confidence could be swiftly influenced. Past examples include market volatility during Fed appointments leading to rapid reactions in equity prices.