1. S&P 500 rose 9.3% this summer, best since 2020. 2. 90% chance of a Federal Reserve rate cut this month. 3. Nonfarm payrolls data could shift rate cut odds. 4. Concerns about overvaluation in AI stocks persist. 5. September historically shows a 0.7% S&P decline.
The anticipated rate cut might support SPY, but risks from economic data loom. Historical trends indicate September can be volatile, influencing SPY downward.
Market sentiment is cautious amid strong summer gains; potential data risks are significant.
Immediate economic indicators like payrolls and inflation will affect SPY direction. October may see clearer trends post-data release.