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Tariff Uncertainties, Part 3: The Bond Markets

1. Treasury market turmoil linked to tariffs wasn't as impactful as perceived. 2. The bond market's behavior is more connected to Fed policies than tariffs. 3. Historic yield curve inversion persisted without predicting a recession. 4. Market volatility spiked significantly, causing concern over liquidity and stability. 5. Tariff impacts remain small relative to the vast scale of the Treasury market.

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FAQ

Why Neutral?

Recent market movements suggest tariffs were a minor trigger, not a primary cause.

How important is it?

Short-term volatility influenced by external shocks; long-term trends remain relatively unaffected.

Why Short Term?

Immediate volatility observed post-tariff announcement, but calming expected as market stabilizes.

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