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Tariffs Are Starting to Cause Inflation. Just Look at This Week’s Data.

1. Import prices rose 0.4% in July, hinting at inflation pressures. 2. Retail spending increased 0.5% in July, indicating consumer comfort but caution. 3. Consumer sentiment dropped to a three-month low amid tariff hikes concerns. 4. Tariff rates may have increased to 18%-19%, impacting future CPI readings. 5. Clothing sales rose 7.4%, but restaurant spending fell 0.4%, showing discretionary caution.

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FAQ

Why Bearish?

Inflation concerns could undermine consumer spending and dampen SPY performance, as seen historically.

How important is it?

Rising tariffs and inflationary pressures could suppress SPY; recent data indicates potential consumer slow-down.

Why Short Term?

Immediate tariff impacts reflect on inflation reports due soon, influencing markets rapidly.

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