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The aluminum sector isn't moving to the U.S. despite tariffs — due to one key reason

1. U.S. aluminum tariffs reshaping global trade but raising costs for consumers. 2. High electricity prices led to U.S. smelter closures rather than openings. 3. Aluminum costs burden downstream users, causing price hikes in related products. 4. Domestic smelting struggles due to inability to access competitive energy prices. 5. Tariffs causing trade flow disruptions and impacting aluminum scrap prices.

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FAQ

Why Bearish?

The imposition of tariffs is inflating costs and leading to smelter closures. Historical examples show that tariffs can negatively impact downstream prices and reduce sector profitability, as seen with Alcoa's closure.

How important is it?

The article highlights direct impacts on costs and tariffs, which have broader implications for the S&P 500. Rising costs can dampen consumer spending and corporate margins, affecting index performance over time.

Why Long Term?

The structural changes in energy pricing and smelting viability will persist and influence aluminum market dynamics for years. The continued closure of facilities and higher consumer prices may lead to prolonged volatility in the sector.

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