The Federal Reserve's favorite recession indicator is flashing a danger sign again
1. The 10-year Treasury yield is below the 3-month note, signaling a recession risk. 2. Historical data shows yield curve inversions predict downturns within 12-18 months. 3. Market sentiment reflects fears of softer economic activity and inflation concerns. 4. Traders expect interest rate cuts from the Fed due to slowing growth prospects. 5. Labor market indicators remain positive, signaling uncertainty about a recession.