1. U.S. recession odds are one in five within 12 months. 2. Wide CCI-UMI spread indicates higher recession risks. 3. Consumers show confidence in the economy, but not in finances. 4. Historical data links CCI-UMI spread to S&P 500 downturns. 5. Current spread suggests potential stock market headwinds ahead.
The correlation between the CCI-UMI spread and S&P 500 downturns indicates potential declines. Historical parallels show significant market drops when spreads were similarly elevated.
The article highlights recession probabilities and their implications for corporate profits, directly affecting the S&P 500. Economic indicators like consumer confidence hold significant sway over market performance, especially during downturns.
The CCI-UMI spread's predictive power offers early warning signals, suggesting market sensitivity in the near term. Past examples show rapid reactions in stock markets following similar indicators.