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Trump wanted to reduce trade deficits, but at least one has ballooned since he took office

1. U.S. travel trade deficit projected to hit $70 billion by 2025. 2. Inbound travel decline primarily driven by fewer Canadian visitors. 3. Travel trade surplus historically reversed to a $50 billion deficit in April. 4. Visitor spending expected to drop 3.2% with a 6.3% reduction in arrivals. 5. Key events may boost international visitation recovery, despite potential risks.

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FAQ

Why Bearish?

A significant travel trade deficit may indicate weaker economic activity. Historical precedents show that trade deficits can depress market performance.

How important is it?

The travel industry impacts various sectors, reflecting broader consumer spending trends. A deficit could influence sectors tied to hospitality, retail, and services.

Why Short Term?

The travel sector's downturn affects quarterly earnings and immediate economic activity. A quick rebound may occur during major events like the FIFA World Cup.

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