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US economic growth forecast cut sharply due to higher tariffs

1. OECD cuts U.S. growth forecast to 1.6% in 2025 and 1.5% in 2026. 2. Higher tariffs contribute to slower growth and increased inflation projections. 3. Policy uncertainty increases risks to economic activity, affecting investor confidence. 4. Tariffs raise effective rates significantly, impacting consumer prices and income. 5. Federal budget deficits expected to exceed 8% of GDP by 2026.

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FAQ

Why Bearish?

The negative outlook on economic growth and higher tariffs may lead to reduced corporate earnings. Historically, similar tariff increases have triggered market volatility and declines.

How important is it?

The OECD's significant growth cuts indicate broader economic weakness, impacting multiple sectors within the S&P 500.

Why Short Term?

Immediate effects on consumer prices and corporate earnings are likely, influencing market sentiment. Investor reactions to economic forecasts typically manifest quickly.

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