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Vanguard's 2026 Outlook Is Here. You Might Want to Get Used to Smaller Stock Returns.

1. Vanguard forecasts 4%-5% annual returns for U.S. stocks over the next decade. 2. AI's impact on the economy doesn't guarantee stock market gains. 3. In Vanguard's bear case, returns could drop to negative 2% to 2%. 4. Market skepticism grows over Big Tech's ability to maintain dominance. 5. Value stocks may outperform growth stocks if AI leads to productivity gains.

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FAQ

Why Bearish?

Vanguard’s forecast suggests lower returns for the S&P 500, indicating market caution.

How important is it?

The data suggests potential stagnation for the S&P 500, affecting investor expectations.

Why Long Term?

The projections span a decade, affecting long-term investment strategies for S&P 500.

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