Brazil’s Markets and Politics Are Intertwined. Trump Is Key.
1. Brazilian assets surged 30% in 2024; real is up 15% against USD. 2. Investors anticipate a court conviction for Bolsonaro by September 12. 3. Market hopes rest on Tarcisio de Freitas succeeding Bolsonaro. 4. Potential U.S. actions could negatively impact Brazilian markets and SPY. 5. Brazil's interest rates are stable at 15%, affecting investment outlook.