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Brazil’s Markets and Politics Are Intertwined. Trump Is Key.

1. Brazilian assets surged 30% in 2024; real is up 15% against USD. 2. Investors anticipate a court conviction for Bolsonaro by September 12. 3. Market hopes rest on Tarcisio de Freitas succeeding Bolsonaro. 4. Potential U.S. actions could negatively impact Brazilian markets and SPY. 5. Brazil's interest rates are stable at 15%, affecting investment outlook.

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FAQ

Why Bearish?

Concerns about U.S.-Brazil financial relations could weaken market sentiment. Historical examples include negative impacts from trade tensions.

How important is it?

The political maneuvering in Brazil could sway international investments, affecting SPY's performance.

Why Short Term?

Political developments are imminent with elections next October, likely impacting SPY in the coming months.

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