First-quarter GDP growth will be just 0.3% as tariffs stoke stagflation conditions, says CNBC survey
1. GDP growth for Q1 projected at only 0.3%, weakest since 2022. 2. Core PCE inflation expected to remain around 2.9% for most of the year. 3. Consumer spending indicators show significant decline, affecting economic activity. 4. New tariffs may exacerbate recession risks in the upcoming quarters. 5. Rebound in GDP expected in Q2, but growth remains modest.