1. Goldman Sachs raises U.S. recession probability from 35% to 45%. 2. Trump's tariffs may negatively impact global economy and capital spending. 3. Expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts due to economic uncertainty. 4. Analysts warn of significant long-term implications from tariff policies. 5. Global economic forecasts are being re-evaluated amid pending tariff effects.
Recession indicators and tariff threats historically depress stock markets, including the S&P 500. Past trading days during tariff announcements showed significant declines.
The high probability of recession and immediate market volatility due to tariffs could severely impact the S&P 500. Tariff-induced recession could trigger widespread capital liquidation.
Tariff implications could ripple through the economy, affecting growth and corporate earnings over several quarters. Historical parallels exist with past trade wars leading to prolonged economic slowdowns.