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JPMorgan now says there’s a 60% chance of a recession after tariff hikes - MarketWatch

1. JPMorgan raises recession probability to 60% due to tariff hikes. 2. Tariff increase represents largest tax hike since 1968, impacting economic outlook. 3. U.S. GDP may drop by 2% with significant negative global effects. 4. S&P 500 experienced a notable decline during tariffs announcement. 5. Long-term trade policies could permanently lower U.S. growth potential.

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FAQ

Why Very Bearish?

The raised recession odds and aggressive tariffs strongly suggest a contraction, similar to past economic downturns which negatively impacted the S&P 500.

How important is it?

The analysis of tariff impacts, recession probabilities, and effects on GDP suggest a high likelihood of significant market changes affecting S&P 500.

Why Long Term?

The potential for sustained negative effects on growth and numerous uncertainties points to prolonged market repercussions, as seen during the Smoot-Hawley tariffs.

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