Trump policies 'promise' an economic downturn, says prominent forecaster in first-ever 'recession watch'
1. UCLA Anderson issued first 'recession watch' citing policy changes under Trump. 2. Economic contraction possible due to tariffs and reduced federal workforce. 3. 36% recession probability for next year, rising from 23% last month. 4. Admin policies may disrupt economic sectors, causing labor shortages. 5. Financial sector risks could amplify downturn; stagflation concerns grow.