How Trump's tariffs could impact the labor market
1. Goldman Sachs reports Trump's tariffs may decrease overall U.S. employment. 2. Manufacturing jobs could increase by about 100,000 despite tariff downsides. 3. Higher input costs are expected to reduce jobs by approximately 500,000. 4. A 15pp tariff increase may lead to recession fears and lower consumer sentiment. 5. Goldman forecasts a 45% chance of recession by 2025 with 0.5% GDP growth.